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FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE By Edward Gofsky - novemver 03, 2007

The Elliott Wave Gold Debate Is Over

Back in 2003 when I was 26 I wrote my first essay on gold called “The 5th Wave Advance In Gold” in that essay I used several charts to put together a stunning case that gold would move from the then price of $379 (September, 2003) to over the 1980 high of $850 and over $1000 in the next 10 years.

Well, here we are today, Saturday November 3 2007 and gold is at $808. This move completely confirms that gold is in a massive impulsive up wave either a 3rd or a 5th wave that will take out the old $850 high and past $1000 before 2010 and maybe even sooner. Just take a look at the chart below, this one chart has made me thousands and thousands of dollars in the last few years as I have been taking my profits all the way up and paying off my mortgage with gold and silver profits. Sometimes all you need is one chart!




It was not easy for any of us in the gold and silver community that were bullish at the bottom 5 years ago, especially the gold bulls that use Elliott wave analysis to make money in the stock market, as Jim Dines would say “we had to keep an iron hand on the tiller”. Robert Prechter, whom I admire and respect for resurrecting Elliott Wave Theory in the 1970s and for making one of the greatest calls in Wall Street history by calling for a massive bull market in the DJIA years before the 1982-2000 historical bull market, was bearish on gold and has stayed bearish on gold all the way up from 2001 until now.

So when a young 26 year old private financial consultant comes out and uses the same technical analysis in the opposite way (me using it to prove a bullish case in gold) you get a lot of disbelief and doubt. Who was I to use the same techniques of the master Elliott Waver? I just thought to myself, how could anyone who uses Elliott Wave or any other technical analysis discipline not see how bullish gold is here in 2003? it is the buy of a lifetime! I had all the Elliott wave books ever written so I was looking at the same charts and techniques.

I guess all you can do is work with what you have and I had a lot, and I mean a lot of bullish gold and silver charts in 2003. Just go to my past essays from years ago and you can see the bullish charts that I was able to work with. So by putting them all together the bullish case was absolutely unbelievable.

What this means is that all the gold bears can be put to bed knowing they got it wrong. It’s not a big deal; there are always other bull markets to make money. It’s just a shame that more of them did not listen to us in the gold community and join us for a ride of a lifetime! People that were in it at the beginning need to be applauded for there foresight and courage to stay the course all the way from $300, $400, $500, $600, $700 and now $800. People like Jim Dines, Doug Casey, Jim Sinclair, Jim Puplava, Adam Hamilton, John Embry, Dave Morgan and many others who helped make a lot of people a lot of money, myself included.

With gold over $800, it is a time for long term holders and investors of gold and silver that have been in it since the early part of this decade to rejoice and say halleluiah. Hopefully most of you have taken profits all the way up to pay off any outstanding debts and mortgages so you can be free of the silk chains of 9-5 society. But hold on to major positions as the next 6 months could be the stuff that dreams are made of.   

Current Situation
With the fed cutting rates for the second time in 2 months, thus sending the dollar on a collision course with .40 on the dollar index, the massive head and shoulders pattern in the dollar has been broken.

The next 6 months could be the big move in gold and silver and their related stocks that we have been waiting for. I will try to keep my essay brief so I will try to cover just the most important factors that I see driving gold and silver much higher from now until May of 2008.

First you have the Fed on an easing cycle that they never wanted to pursue, but because of the housing debt and derivatives bubble being popped, they had no choice. Next, the six months from November to May have, over the last 60 years been the strongest time of the year for the stock market which is good for gold and silver stocks. Then, you have the seasonal strength of gold itself, Bud Conrad of Casey Research came out with what I consider one of the greatest essays on why gold might soar in the next few months.

Bud showed in his essay a chart that shows month by month the gains in gold, an average since the bull market in the yellow metal started in 2001 until 2006. The November average gain in the last 5 years was a stunning 40% December was around 25%, January also around 25%, February around 5%, March is actually down about 2-3%, April 10% and then May over 40%. These are stunning gains in gold and they match up perfectly with the seasonal strength of the stock market.

Since 2008 is an election year in the U.S, expect the Fed lead by (I’m going to write an academic paper before I become Fed chairman telling everyone what I would do if there was a major threat of an oncoming economic recession, which is dropping money from helicopters and using a devise that we call a PRINTING PRESS to save the economy) Ben Bernanke to cut rates fast before we get to close the November 2008 presidential election. There is absolutely no way that the Fed is going to cut rates close to the election, the Fed does not want to look like they are influencing the election in any way even though they are doing just that right now.

Remember, Ben Bernanke is a republican and the only people left in the bush white house are old uncle dick and Condi Rice. If the republicans want to at least try to have a close election in November 2008 they need a strong economy, because you know that the current president and the Republican Party realize what brought down his father in the early 1990’s (a bad economy). So I think the Fed will move fast in the next 6 months so they don’t need to act in an emergency situation say in September 2008, that would be a disaster.

I don’t even need to get into the crisis in the mortgage lending and derivatives collapse hitting Wall Street that has already found victims in the CEOs of Merrill and Citigroup.

This is way worse than the tech bubble popping in 2001, this is a lot worse and everyone knows what the Fed did after the Tech bubble, they dropped rates from 6-1%. This whole situation is super bullish for gold and silver and could all come together in the next 6 months. I am not saying that gold is going straight to $1000 and silver to $25 in a rocket shot (there is a chance) but after some pullbacks and whipsaw moves I do think the odds that gold reaches $1000 and silver $25 by the end of 2008 are very favorable.

I will now show some of my charts on gold, silver, and the HUI gold index that are very bullish. Stay focused! This could be the ride of your life!

For some of my readers who have wondered where I have been (my last essay was in June 2005 where I called the bottom in gold stocks before they had the massive 05-06 run up) I have been very busy hunkered down reading and studying and have had a hard time finding the time to write, I also got married last year to a beautiful woman who now runs my website.

I am now ready to come back and share my thoughts and ideas with all of you and I look forward to a profitable future for us all.

Edward Gofsky
I welcome all comments and views on my essay. Contact me to discuss this posting.
Elliott Wave Theory, Classical Technical Analysis and Financial Planning
  Edward Gofsky, The Technical Contrarian, copyright 2007
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